01Investment thesis
Five pillars behind an asymmetric setup
The swing factor is the residential segment turning profitable in Q2 2026 (guided) — the first hard proof Homes.com can monetize.
1
Category-defining data moat
2,000+ field researchers power the world's largest professionally-researched CRE database — ~79% gross margin, ~90% recurring revenue, and 60 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth.
2
Profitability inflection underway
Adjusted EBITDA doubled YoY to $132mm in Q1'26; FY26E guidance of $780–820mm implies margins recovering from a ~9% trough (FY24) toward the mid-20s% by 2028.
3
Homes.com optionality vs. Zillow
A #2 U.S. residential portal — 35k paying agents (+205% YoY) and +119% organic traffic — with net investment cut >$300mm in 2026 en route to profitability by 2030.
4
Global platform build-out
Domain (Australia, ~A$3bn) and Matterport (~$1.6bn) extend CoStar into international residential and 3D spatial data; the pending Zonda deal ($800mm) adds new-home construction data.
5
Deep valuation dislocation
At a seven-year low the stock trades ~3.2x FY26E revenue — roughly 70% below its own history and a discount to information-services peers — with the Street's mean target implying ~55% upside.
02Company overview
CoStar Group at a glance
Financial summary & trading multiples
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Firm-value build
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03Business model
Two engines: a durable data franchise and fast-growing marketplaces
FY2025 revenue by segment
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Model highlights
- ~90% of revenue is recurring subscription; annual CRE contracts renew in the high-90s%.
- 60 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth through Q1 2026.
- Record $308mm net new bookings in FY2025 (+23% YoY); Homes.com a growing contributor.
- Balance sheet near net-cash-neutral after funding Domain + Matterport; $1.5bn buyback authorized.
04Trading comparables
CoStar screens cheap on both frameworks
CoStar trades ~3.2x FY26E revenue — a steep discount to the ~9x information-services median while growing ~3x faster. The tables carry the underlying build (FV, revenue, EBITDA); the growth, margin and multiple columns copy as live Excel formulas. Subject row highlighted.
Information & analytics
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Online real-estate marketplaces
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05Valuation
Multiple lenses converge on ~$40–55
Every lens except the depressed spot price converges on roughly $40–55/share — around the $44 consensus median and ~35–85% above the $29.78 current.
Valuation football field
Current $29.78
52-week trading range
$27$97
Broker price targets
$26$70
DCF (9.5% WACC ± g)
$35$55
EV / Revenue (3.0–5.0x FY27E)
$31$52
EV / EBITDA (14–20x FY27E)
$35$50
$20$40$60$80$100
Discounted cash flow — fully live model
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06Broker perspectives
Street targets & consensus
Consensus
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07Share-price performance
A seven-year de-rating
Indexed to 100 (Jul-2023). CoStar de-rated to a seven-year low even as info-services peers and the S&P 500 advanced — see the annotated chart on slide 7.
08Multiple history
The de-rating
CoStar’s NTM EV/Revenue compressed from an ~11–13x peak to ~3.2x — roughly a 70% de-rating; normalized P/E ~22x vs a ~76x historical mean. Series are best-effort reconstructions.
09Cost of capital
WACC & bottom-up beta
Cost of capital
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Bottom-up beta
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10Industry trends
Four forces shaping the story
The residential portal wars intensify
Homes.com's agent-centric model is scaling fast — 35k paying agents (+205% YoY), $106mm exit ARR (+92%) and +119% organic traffic — with the residential segment guided to turn profitable in Q2'26; comScore still ranks it #4 behind Zillow and Realtor.com.
Implication: The single most-watched catalyst: converting traffic into paid agents is the whole bull/bear debate.
Multifamily oversupply fuels ad demand
U.S. apartment vacancy hit ~8.6% — the highest since the post-GFC recovery — as a record supply wave leases up. Apartments.com grew +10% (its 15th straight double-digit quarter), the profitable engine that funds the residential build-out.
Implication: Peak landlord competition for renters = peak advertising demand for Apartments.com.
AI raises the value of proprietary data
The Feb-2026 Homes AI launch (on Azure OpenAI) lifted organic traffic +119% and ~4x on-site engagement; Matterport adds 14mm+ 3D spaces on top of 2,000+ researchers and $5bn+ of data investment.
Implication: Positions CoStar as an AI beneficiary and the clearest differentiator vs. Zillow.
Commercial real estate cycle recovers
CRE transaction volume was +40% YoY in late 2025 with brokers guiding +15–20% for 2026 as rates ease — a direct tailwind to LoopNet (+16%) and Ten-X, though the mature CoStar Suite (+8.5%) is the group's slowest grower.
Implication: A cyclical call option on 2026–27 re-acceleration in the core CRE franchise.
11TAM
A >$100bn stated global opportunity
12Bull vs. bear
An asymmetric setup hinging on Homes.com
▲ Bull
- Unrivaled data moat — 2,000+ researchers, ~90% recurring revenue, 60 straight double-digit-growth quarters and high-90s% renewals — a franchise with real pricing power.
- Profitability inflection — Adj. EBITDA doubled YoY in Q1'26; guided to ~$800mm (FY26E) → ~$1.25bn (FY28) → ~$2.3bn (2030) at a ~35% margin.
- Homes.com optionality, near-free — #2 U.S. portal, 35k agents (+205%), residential guided to profitability in Q2'26 — the same Apartments.com playbook skeptics once dismissed.
- Deep valuation dislocation — ~3x FY26E revenue (~70% below its own history); the market values the whole company near the CRE core alone (~$35bn). Street mean ~$46 (+54%).
- Cleaner story, capital return — Third Point exited and management prevailed at the June-2026 proxy; a first-ever $1.5bn buyback is underway.
▼ Bear
- Homes.com unproven — >$3bn invested for only ~$100mm revenue and ~$2bn cumulative losses; breakeven pushed to ~2030; comScore still ranks it #4 behind Zillow and Realtor.com.
- Core decelerating — CoStar Suite (+8.5%) is the slowest segment; net-new bookings have missed expectations in some recent quarters.
- Multiple overhang — Information-services multiples are de-rating on GenAI uncertainty; several brokers cut targets in 2026 on 'tougher comps.'
- Capital-allocation scrutiny — ~$3.5bn of 2025 M&A plus continued Homes.com burn spent the cash war-chest; the $500mm ASR was executed at ~$44 — ~50% above today's price.
- Governance / key-man — Founder-CEO concentration; activists argue ~$11bn of value was destroyed; 2026 say-on-pay passed with only ~71% support.
Why now: The swing factor is the residential segment turning profitable in Q2 2026 (guided) — the first hard proof that Homes.com can monetize. Paired with adj. EBITDA doubling, a resolved activist fight and a maiden buyback, the risk/reward at a seven-year low is asymmetric — provided execution holds.
13M&A history
Ten deals building the platform
14Strategic M&A targets
Three acquisition avenues
Three avenues could compound CoStar’s data moat and marketplace reach. The outside-the-box call is Procore — pairing the #1 construction-management platform with Zonda + LoopNet to own the built-world lifecycle.
International residential portals
Repeat the OnTheMarket / Domain playbook — buy #1/#2 portals and reprice, adding ~80% EBITDA-margin non-USD growth.
Rightmove
UK #1 (~85% traffic share); public (LSE: RMV), mkt cap ~£3.1bn.
Strategic prize — consolidates with OnTheMarket into a ~70% EBITDA-margin UK #1; REA's rejected ~£5.8bn bid proves it is in play.
Idealista
#1 portal in Spain/Italy/Portugal; PE-owned (Cinven/EQT), EV ~€3.1bn.
Southern-European leader whose PE owners are natural sellers — a digestible, margin-accretive bolt-on.
Hemnet
#1 Swedish portal; public (STO: HEM), mkt cap ~$0.8bn.
The most digestible portal — Nordic #1 with monopoly economics and a clean tuck-in size.
US residential agent software
Monetize Homes.com's +119% traffic by owning the agent CRM / lead-gen OS and converting eyeballs into recurring SaaS.
Inside Real Estate (BoldTrail)
#1 independent U.S. brokerage software (~500k pros); PE-owned (Genstar).
The cleanest 'own the agent OS' bolt-on — instantly gives Homes.com CRM, websites and transaction tooling.
HomeLight
Agent-matching marketplace + fintech; ~$1.6bn (2022 mark).
Adds lead-gen and embedded mortgage/closing fintech — likely a down-round entry vs. the 2022 mark.
Ylopo
AI digital-marketing / lead-gen serving 75k+ pros; founder-run.
The cheapest way to bolt AI lead-gen and an 'AI ISA' onto Homes.com — a small, high-fit tuck-in.
CRE transactions, construction & fintech
Neutralize LoopNet's #1 threat (Crexi) and own the built-world lifecycle: pre-construction (Zonda) → workflow (Procore) → lease-up (LoopNet).
Crexi
Fastest-growing CRE marketplace ($816bn active listings, 3mm+ MAU); ~$110mm raised.
The direct LoopNet challenger — buying it removes CoStar's #1 CRE-marketplace threat.
VTS
#1 CRE leasing / asset-management platform + demand data; $1.7bn (2022).
Owns the landlord/leasing workflow and demand data CoStar lacks; strategic holder CBRE a natural seller.
Procore
#1 construction-management platform (~$1.4bn rev, +15%); public (NYSE: PCOR), ~$6.9bn.
Outside-the-box, transformative: with Zonda + LoopNet, own the built-world from ground-break to lease-up — and, like CSGP, trades ~50% below its 10-yr multiple.
+Sources & disclaimer
Sources & methodology
- CoStar Group Q1 2026 earnings release & 8-K, FY2025 results and FY2025 10-K (SEC / investors.costargroup.com)
- CoStar 2026 Outlook and earnings-call transcripts (2025–2026)
- Share price & multiples: stockanalysis.com, macrotrends, gurufocus, valueinvesting.io, Nasdaq (as of ~7/17–20/2026)
- Consensus estimates & price targets: stockanalysis.com, MarketBeat, TipRanks, public sell-side notes (2026)
- Peer & beta data: stockanalysis.com and MarketScreener consensus (13 information-services and marketplace peers)
- WACC inputs: TradingEconomics (10Y UST), Damodaran (ERP), Moody's/Fitch (rating), FINRA (2030 notes YTM)
- Industry, TAM & M&A: company disclosures and press reports (HousingWire, Inman, Real Estate News)
Independent educational project by a 2026 J.P. Morgan summer analyst, using only publicly available information (no material non-public information / MNPI). Not a J.P. Morgan work product and not affiliated with, authorized by, or endorsed by J.P. Morgan. Figures compiled from public sources as of ~July 17–20, 2026; historical multiple and indexed-price series are best-effort reconstructions and the DCF is illustrative. Broker ratings, targets and dates are actual public 2026 actions. Not investment advice or a recommendation. All trademarks and logos are the property of their respective owners.